Zuanic & Associates’ latest report offers a thorough analysis of the financial impacts expected in key U.S. states, including Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, as they move toward recreational cannabis sales by 2025.
Highlighting both EBITDA and market cap upside, the report emphasizes the growth potential across these states under various expansion scenarios.
EBITDA and Market Cap Upsides in Key U.S. States: Key Highlights
- Market Leaders’ EBITDA Upside: Curaleaf ($2,508M), Green Thumb ($2,160M), Verano ($1,435M) and Trulieve ($983M) are positioned for significant EBITDA growth.
- Major Gains for Emerging Players: Cannabist could see its market cap surge almost 1000%, while Jushi Holdings Inc. JUSHF might experience over a 600% increase.
- Solid Upside for Established Operators: Acreage Holdings, Inc. (ACRHF) and Ayr Wellness Inc. AYRWF are projected to have about a 500% market cap increase, with Trulieve Cannabis Corp. TCNNF over 150%, Cresco Labs Inc. CRLBF around 100%, and Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. AAWH and Green Thumb Industries Inc. GTBIF each about 80%.
- Notable Potential for Goodness Growth Holdings, Inc. (GDNSF), particularly in Minnesota.
- Tax Rule 280E Repeal Impact: A possible repeal could dramatically lower effective tax rates from over 70% to around 21%, benefiting all, especially financially strained companies.
State-Specific Forecasts
- Virginia: Anticipates substantial market expansion, with significant EBITDA increases for Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc., and Green Thumb Industries Inc.
- Minnesota: Foresees substantial EBITDA growth for Goodness Growth Holdings, Inc. GDNSF and a moderate increase for Green Thumb Industries Inc. GTBIF.
- Pennsylvania: Projects a 1.5 to 2x recreational sales increase, benefiting Jushi Holdings Inc., Ayr Wellness Inc. AYRWF, and Cresco Labs Inc. CRLBF.
- Ohio: Expect significant market expansion, favoring operators like Vext Science, Inc. VEXTF, Acreage Holdings, Inc. ACRHF, and Cannabist.
- Florida: With high per capita spending, major operators like Trulieve Cannabis Corp., Verano Holdings Corp. VRNOF, Ayr Wellness Inc., and Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. CURLF stand to benefit greatly.
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