Have you been paying attention to shares of Jakks Pacific (JAKK)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 18.7% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 in the previous session. Jakks Pacific has gained 103.3% since the start of the year compared to the 17.5% move for the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the 19.3% return for the Zacks Toys – Games – Hobbies industry.
What’s Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn’t missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on November 1, 2023, Jakks reported EPS of $4.75 versus consensus estimate of $3.46 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 9.03%.
For the current fiscal year, Jakks is expected to post earnings of $5.28 per share on $726.07 million in revenues. Meanwhile, for the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $4.57 per share on $752.25 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -13.54% and 3.61%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Jakks may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Jakks has a Value Score of A. The stock’s Growth and Momentum Scores are A and C, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 6.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 18.9X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 6.7X versus its peer group’s average of 11.4X. This isn’t enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Jakks currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Jakks meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Jakks shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.
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