Can the ‘Magnificent Seven’ Continue to Lead the Market Higher in 2024?

Market commentators love tortured acronyms or catchy phrases when it comes to big tech stocks. First it was FANG, which was reputedly first used by CNBC’s Jim Cramer. That stood for Facebook (now Meta: META), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (now Alphabet: GOOG, GOOGL). Then, a few years later, Apple (AAPL) was added to the mix, and we got the less catchy, but probably more representative, FAANG. Then corporate expansion and a shifting tech landscape caught up with that one too. Facebook and Google changed their names to better reflect the fact that they were no longer one-product affairs, streaming wars made Netflix less of a rapid growth stock, and the once moribund Microsoft (MSFT) took off under Satya Nadella, forcing their inclusion. That led to MAMAA: Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet becoming the phrase du jour.

Recently, though, with everything having to be adjusted to allow for the AI revolution and with EVs becoming much more mainstream, the most popular phrase for big tech stocks has become “The Magnificent Seven,” adding Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) alongside Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. That one is credited to a Bank of America (BAC) analyst, but the very fact that over the last few years there have been so many iterations of the way analysts and pundits refer to outperforming big tech stocks shows why such things are of little use.

There is always a group of outperformers but is a fluid thing, almost by definition. Tech is about meeting trends and grabbing opportunities, and while doing that well can lead to rapid, short-term success, there is no guarantee that even the best companies will maintain their outperformance for any length of time. Nor is it true that, as MSFT showed all too well, one that missed out for a while cannot burst back onto the scene with a change of management and/or focus.

So the obvious answer to the question, “Can the Magnificent Seven continue to lead the market in 2024?” is no. That is not because those seven stock can’t or won’t do well. In fact, if the bond and stock markets are right and the Fed cuts rates early next year, they almost certainly will perform well.

But I say the answer is “no” is because if the ever-changing history of who’s in this group tells us anything, it is that the name of the group itself will probably have changed twelve months from now. Maybe it will have to include at least one company making weight-loss drugs, or the long-awaited and oft-predicted rise of fuel cells will force the inclusion of a name from that industry, or a new social media platform could take off.

Or maybe what we will be talking about a year from now will be a stock in a field that most of us have never heard of, or have already written off. Let’s face it, how many of you were screaming about AI at this time last year when NVDA was trading at around $150 after it had lost half of its value in around a year? My guess is not that many would have imagined NVDA to have gone from $150 to almost $500 in twelve months.

Then there is the very real chance that the market will fall next year. That isn’t out of the realm of the possible, for several reasons: The fight against inflation is still ongoing and may not have as happy an ending as is now generally assumed. There are two major wars in strategically important parts of the world which could yet get worse. Also, 2024 is an election year in a country where “divided” doesn’t even come close to describing the political environment, and where a win for either party will have a third of the country believing that the end of America is coming. The chance of any or all of those things derailing stocks next year is another subject for another day, but they do have to be considered.

All things considered, the chance of the “Magnificent Seven” — as that phrase is currently understood — leading the market higher next year is close to zero. That may be because the market doesn’t go up at all next year, or it may be because trends and developments in technology create a shifting landscape, but either way, it looks like someone will have to come up with a new acronym or cute phrase to describe next year’s stock market leaders.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.