Is the Super Bowl a leading indicator for stock market performance? Yes, says one firm as it drew upon a historical trend to predict the year’s likely market trajectory.
What Happened: Super Bowl LVIII, the championship game of the National Football League, is scheduled to be held on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. It will be played between San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, with odds favoring a victory for the former.
A victory for the 49ers would mean that they would be tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for the most Super Bowl rings. On the other hand, if the Chiefs prevail, they will be one of seven teams that have four championships under their belt.
Sifting through historical trends, Bespoke Investment found a 49ers victory would be better for the stock market. So far, the team has won the Super Bowl five times and the market was higher for the remainder of the year 100% of the time, it said. The average gain was 20.2% for the remainder of the year.
A Chiefs victory has also been positive for the market, but not as positive as 49ers’. The market was higher 67% following the three times they won and the average gain was a more modest 10.9%.
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Victories for the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, on the other hand, have not been positive for the market, as it slid 3.4% and 4.9%, respectively, between their victories at the Super Bowl and year-end.
Bespoke also noted that “[some] of the best returns for the remainder of the year have come following high-scoring blowouts.”
“When defense wins, the bears win too.”
The recent buoyancy has come on the back of positive corporate earnings and expectations that the Fed will begin to reverse the rate hikes. The central bank, however, hasn’t committed to any timeline to begin its rate cuts and has continued to premise the move on how inflation and growth pan out.
While those in the bullish camp say momentum will carry the market through, with support from Fed rate cuts, others see a snapping of gains as the lagged impact of the successive rate hikes begin to work its way through the economy and result in a hard landing.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 Index, ended Friday’s session up 0.58% at $501.20, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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